⭐ Best Bet of the Day
Lulamba
6/4
Confidence: 85/100
📌 Each-Way Value
Matata
20/1 E/W
🎯 Longshot
Matata
20/1 — worth £5 E/W
Race 1 — 13:20
Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle
Value Pick
Mydaddypaddy
9/1
▼
Key Trends
- 8 of last 12 winners Irish-trained; Mullins has 7 of those
- 10 of last 12 winners won their final prep race
- 11 of last 12 rated 147+
- Key trials: Formby (Sandown) & Tattersalls Ireland (Leopardstown)
🥇
Mydaddypaddy
Bookie Odds
9/1 (10.0)
True Price
9.53
EV%
+5.0%
Confidence
62/100
🟡
Our prob: 10.5%
Implied prob: 10.0%
True price: 9.53 vs 10.0 offered
+5.0% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.050x | Base: 10.0% → Model: 10.5%
Trainer Festival SR
0.83
8%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.04
13%
Jockey Festival SR
0.90
8%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.50
1211
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.20
Soft / Good to Soft
Age
1.00
5
Rating
0.90
145
Freshness
1.15
40d
Trainer
Dan Skelton
Dan Skelton
Jockey
Harry Skelton
Harry Skelton
Form
1211
1211
Ground
Soft / Good to Soft
Soft / Good to Soft
Won the Formby Novices' Hurdle — key Supreme trial
Formby winners have produced 3 of last 8 Supreme winners
Dan Skelton rising force at Festival (7 winners, improving)
Won last time out — fits the 10/12 trend
Good ground horse but handles soft
Rating of 145 just below the 147+ trend requirement
No Cheltenham or Festival form
British-trained (8 of 12 Supreme winners are Irish)
VALUE PICK — key trial winner at a big price. Skelton on the up.
STAKE: £10.00
(5% of bank)
🥈
Old Park Star
Bookie Odds
2/1 (3.0)
True Price
2.58
EV%
+16.2%
Confidence
78/100
🟡
Our prob: 38.7%
Implied prob: 33.3%
True price: 2.58 vs 3.0 offered
+16.2% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.162x | Base: 33.3% → Model: 38.7%
Trainer Festival SR
1.21
17%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.25
18%
Jockey Festival SR
1.20
14%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.50
111
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.10
Good to Soft / Soft
Age
1.00
5
Rating
1.23
155
Freshness
1.15
45d
Trainer
Nicky Henderson
Nicky Henderson
Jockey
Nico de Boinville
Nico de Boinville
Form
111
111
Ground
Good to Soft / Soft
Good to Soft / Soft
Perfect 3/3 over hurdles — unbeaten
Won Sky Supreme Rossington Main (Haydock) by 18 lengths
Timeform 155p — same RPR (152) Constitution Hill had pre-Supreme
Henderson on Tuesdays: 18% strike rate, 80% with favourites
Henderson trained 7 Arkle winners + strong Tuesday record
No Cheltenham course form yet
No Festival experience — first time at the big stage
Short price — limited value at 2/1
Mullins has 8 runners in this — tactical complexity
CLASS ACT but short price. Likely winner but limited value.
STAKE: £10.00
(5% of bank)
🥉
Talk The Talk
Bookie Odds
4/1 (5.0)
True Price
5.07
EV%
-1.4%
Confidence
55/100
🟠
Our prob: 19.7%
Implied prob: 20.0%
True price: 5.07 vs 5.0 offered
-1.4% EV NO VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 0.986x | Base: 20.0% → Model: 19.7%
Trainer Festival SR
0.88
9%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.50
25%
Jockey Festival SR
0.90
8%
Won Last Time Out
0.70
No
Recent Form
1.27
1F1
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.20
Soft
Age
1.00
5
Rating
1.00
148
Freshness
1.15
30d
Trainer
Joseph O'Brien
Joseph O'Brien
Jockey
JJ Slevin
JJ Slevin
Form
1F1
1F1
Ground
Soft
Soft
Won Grade 1 at Dublin Racing Festival
Joseph O'Brien: 25% Festival strike rate (Fred Winter specialist)
Ground should suit — loves soft
Improving profile — progressive novice
FELL in Grade 1 at Leopardstown last time — worry
No Cheltenham form
Fall introduces doubt about jumping under pressure
Talent is there but fall last time is a concern. Fair price.
Avoid
❌ Mighty Park
— May be aimed at Turners instead — dual entry risk
❌ El Cairos
— Elliott 1/52 at 2025 Festival, 7% Tuesday strike rate
❌ Sober
— Mullins' 2nd/3rd string — impossible to identify the right one from 8 runners
Race 2 — 14:00
Singer Arkle Challenge Trophy
Value Pick
Lulamba
6/4
▼
Key Trends
- 8 of last 12 won by the favourite — one of the most punter-friendly races
- 10 of last 12 winners won their last race
- 11 of last 12 aged 6 or 7
- 10 of last 12 had previously run at Cheltenham
- Henderson is leading all-time Arkle trainer (7 wins in 30 years)
🥇
Lulamba
Bookie Odds
6/4 (2.5)
True Price
2.12
EV%
+18.1%
Confidence
85/100
🟢
Our prob: 47.2%
Implied prob: 40.0%
True price: 2.12 vs 2.5 offered
+18.1% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.181x | Base: 40.0% → Model: 47.2%
Trainer Festival SR
1.21
17%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.25
18%
Jockey Festival SR
1.20
14%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.50
111
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.10
Good to Soft
Age
1.20
6
Rating
1.40
160
Freshness
1.15
35d
Trainer
Nicky Henderson
Nicky Henderson
Jockey
Nico de Boinville
Nico de Boinville
Form
111
111
Ground
Good to Soft
Good to Soft
Unbeaten 3/3 over fences
Won Grade 2 Game Spirit at Newbury impressively
Henderson is ALL-TIME leading Arkle trainer (7 wins)
Henderson on Tuesdays: 18% strike, 80% with favourites
Fits every single trend: age 6, won last time, favourite
De Boinville partnership strong (17 Festival winners)
No Cheltenham form (10/12 winners had run at Cheltenham)
Short price — need to find value elsewhere
Ground could be softer than ideal
BANKER MATERIAL. Fits every trend. Henderson + Arkle = historic combo.
STAKE: £20.00
(10% of bank)
🥈
Kopek Des Bordes
Bookie Odds
2/1 (3.0)
True Price
2.27
EV%
+32.3%
Confidence
65/100
🟡
Our prob: 44.1%
Implied prob: 33.3%
True price: 2.27 vs 3.0 offered
+32.3% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.323x | Base: 33.3% → Model: 44.1%
Trainer Festival SR
1.42
22%
Trainer Tuesday SR
0.96
11%
Jockey Festival SR
1.50
21%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.50
1—
Course Form
1.40
1 (won Supreme 2025)
Festival Form
1.35
1/1 — won Supreme 2025 at 4/6
Ground Fit
1.20
Soft
Age
1.20
6
Rating
1.23
155
Freshness
1.15
60d
Trainer
Willie Mullins
Willie Mullins
Jockey
Paul Townend
Paul Townend
Form
1—
1—
Ground
Soft
Soft
Course Form
1 (won Supreme 2025)
1 (won Supreme 2025)
Festival Form
1/1 — won Supreme 2025 at 4/6
1/1 — won Supreme 2025 at 4/6
Won last year's Supreme — Festival winner!
Mullins/Townend: 35% recent Festival strike rate
Course and Festival winner — proven at Cheltenham
Soft ground ideal for him
Only 1 chase start — handicapper can't have got measure
Only one run over fences — novice in every sense
2/1 is short for a horse with one chase start
May lack chase experience to beat Lulamba's 3/3
Impressive Fairyhouse gallop doesn't equal racecourse form
Festival proven but one chase start is a worry at 2/1. Opposable.
STAKE: £10.00
(5% of bank)
🥉
Romeo Coolio
Bookie Odds
5/1 (6.0)
True Price
5.60
EV%
+7.1%
Confidence
48/100
🟠
Our prob: 17.8%
Implied prob: 16.7%
True price: 5.60 vs 6.0 offered
+7.1% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.071x | Base: 16.7% → Model: 17.8%
Trainer Festival SR
0.92
10%
Trainer Tuesday SR
0.79
7%
Jockey Festival SR
1.05
11%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.50
111
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.20
Soft / Heavy
Age
1.20
7
Rating
1.07
150
Freshness
1.00
—
Trainer
Gordon Elliott
Gordon Elliott
Jockey
Jack Kennedy
Jack Kennedy
Form
111
111
Ground
Soft / Heavy
Soft / Heavy
Unbeaten over fences this season
Age 7 fits trend (11/12 aged 6-7)
Won last time — fits key trend
Ground should suit
Elliott's abysmal recent Festival form (1/52 in 2025)
No Cheltenham experience
5/1 is fair but Elliott factor is a major drag
Form fits but Elliott's Festival record is a red flag.
Avoid
❌ Kargese
— Last year's County Hurdle winner but unproven over fences at this level
❌ Romeo Coolio
— Elliott 1/52 at 2025 Festival — form fits but trainer is the problem
Race 3 — 14:40
Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Value Pick
Murcia
14/1
EW
▼
Key Trends
- Favourites have POOR record: only 14% strike rate (1 in 12)
- Average winning odds: 21.69 — look for big prices
- 9 of 12 winners carried 10st 6lb to 11st 5lb
- Joseph O'Brien: 3 wins from 12 runners (25%!) — Fred Winter king
- Rated Hurdle at Naas is the key trial (3 of last 7 winners)
⚠ Notoriously open race. No strong value. Small E/W play at best.
🥇
Murcia
EW
Bookie Odds
14/1 (15.0)
True Price
13.13
EV%
+14.3%
Confidence
45/100
🟠
Our prob: 7.6%
Implied prob: 6.7%
True price: 13.13 vs 15.0 offered
+14.3% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.143x | Base: 6.7% → Model: 7.6%
Trainer Festival SR
1.42
22%
Trainer Tuesday SR
0.96
11%
Jockey Festival SR
1.50
21%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.32
21
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.20
Soft
Age
0.90
4
Rating
0.50
130
Freshness
1.00
—
Trainer
Willie Mullins
Willie Mullins
Jockey
Paul Townend
Paul Townend
Form
21
21
Ground
Soft
Soft
Eye-catching last time at Leopardstown
Mullins/Townend combo
Price fits the profile — average Fred Winter winner is 21.69
Likely to be well handicapped — lightly raced
Limited form to assess
First run at Cheltenham
Big field — anything can happen
EACH-WAY VALUE at the price. Mullins with a well-handicapped juvenile.
STAKE: £5.00
(2.5% of bank)
🥈
Saratoga
Bookie Odds
9/2 (5.5)
True Price
5.17
EV%
+6.4%
Confidence
52/100
🟠
Our prob: 19.3%
Implied prob: 18.2%
True price: 5.17 vs 5.5 offered
+6.4% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.064x | Base: 18.2% → Model: 19.3%
Trainer Festival SR
0.88
9%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.50
25%
Jockey Festival SR
0.90
8%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.47
211
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.20
Soft
Age
0.90
4
Rating
0.57
135
Freshness
1.00
—
Trainer
Joseph O'Brien
Joseph O'Brien
Jockey
JJ Slevin
JJ Slevin
Form
211
211
Ground
Soft
Soft
Joseph O'Brien: 25% Fred Winter strike rate (3/12) — specialist!
O'Brien won back-to-back 2024 & 2025 in this race
Won last time out
Good racing weight — not top of the handicap
Favourites only 14% in this race — short price is against us
At 9/2, too short for a race with average winner at 21.69 odds
May not represent O'Brien's best entry
Trainer angle is strong but price is too short for this race type.
🥉
Munsif
Bookie Odds
12/1 (13.0)
True Price
13.10
EV%
-0.8%
Confidence
38/100
🔴
Our prob: 7.6%
Implied prob: 7.7%
True price: 13.10 vs 13.0 offered
-0.8% EV NO VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 0.992x | Base: 7.7% → Model: 7.6%
Trainer Festival SR
1.21
17%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.25
18%
Jockey Festival SR
1.20
14%
Won Last Time Out
0.70
No
Recent Form
1.18
312
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.10
Good to Soft
Age
0.90
4
Rating
0.50
132
Freshness
1.00
—
Trainer
Nicky Henderson
Nicky Henderson
Jockey
Nico de Boinville
Nico de Boinville
Form
312
312
Ground
Good to Soft
Good to Soft
Henderson on Tuesdays is strong
Placed form — consistent
Price offers each-way value
Hasn't won last time — against the 'won LTO' trend
Placed but not winning — is he good enough?
Place claims only. Each-way if you must.
Avoid
❌ Winston Junior
— Likely to skip for Triumph Hurdle — dual entry risk
❌ Highland Crystal
— Top weight + likely Triumph target — skip
Race 4 — 15:20
Ultima Handicap Chase
Value Pick
Jagwar
17/1
EW
▼
Key Trends
- British-trained runners dominate: Irish trainers 0/46 in last 18 years!
- Average winner aged 7-8
- Favourites win only 16% — look beyond the favourite
- Lucinda Russell: 3 wins from 6 (50%!) — Corach Rambler x2, Myretown
- Second-season chasers / novices do well (less exposed)
- Grand National link: Ultima winners often go on to National success
🥇
Jagwar
EW
Bookie Odds
17/1 (18.0)
True Price
16.98
EV%
+6.0%
Confidence
55/100
🟠
Our prob: 5.9%
Implied prob: 5.6%
True price: 16.98 vs 18.0 offered
+6.0% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.060x | Base: 5.6% → Model: 5.9%
Trainer Festival SR
1.00
12%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.04
13%
Jockey Festival SR
0.90
8%
Won Last Time Out
0.70
No
Recent Form
1.13
1P2
Course Form
1.40
1 (won 2025 Plate)
Festival Form
1.35
1/1 — won Plate 2025
Ground Fit
1.10
Good to Soft / Soft
Age
1.20
8
Rating
1.00
148
Freshness
1.15
50d
Trainer
Paul Nicholls
Paul Nicholls
Jockey
Harry Cobden
Harry Cobden
Form
1P2
1P2
Ground
Good to Soft / Soft
Good to Soft / Soft
Course Form
1 (won 2025 Plate)
1 (won 2025 Plate)
Festival Form
1/1 — won Plate 2025
1/1 — won Plate 2025
Festival winner last year (Plate) — proven at Cheltenham
Nicholls training him for this + Grand National
Course winner — knows Cheltenham
Price is generous — 17/1 for a Festival winner
Step up in trip could suit
9lb rise from Plate win — more to do off higher mark
Different race — Plate is 2m4f, Ultima is 3m1f
Didn't win last time out
VALUE at 17/1. Festival winner stepping up in trip. Nicholls for the National.
STAKE: £5.00
(2.5% of bank)
🥈
Iroko
Bookie Odds
11/1 (12.0)
True Price
10.39
EV%
+15.5%
Confidence
60/100
🟡
Our prob: 9.6%
Implied prob: 8.3%
True price: 10.39 vs 12.0 offered
+15.5% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.155x | Base: 8.3% → Model: 9.6%
Trainer Festival SR
1.21
17%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.25
18%
Jockey Festival SR
1.20
14%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.47
211
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.10
Good to Soft / Soft
Age
1.20
8
Rating
1.07
150
Freshness
1.00
—
Trainer
Nicky Henderson
Nicky Henderson
Jockey
Nico de Boinville
Nico de Boinville
Form
211
211
Ground
Good to Soft / Soft
Good to Soft / Soft
Current Grand National favourite — class horse
Henderson on Tuesdays: strong record
Won last time out
Using this as Aintree prep — will be fit and ready
Age 8 — fits the sweet spot
Connections may not be fully committed — Aintree is the target
11/1 is fair rather than generous
British-trained is historically good in this race though
Strong contender but may be saved for Aintree. Worth watching in the market.
STAKE: £10.00
(5% of bank)
🥉
Myretown
Bookie Odds
8/1 (9.0)
True Price
7.49
EV%
+20.2%
Confidence
58/100
🟠
Our prob: 13.4%
Implied prob: 11.1%
True price: 7.49 vs 9.0 offered
+20.2% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.202x | Base: 11.1% → Model: 13.4%
Trainer Festival SR
0.92
10%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.50
50%
Jockey Festival SR
1.00
10%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.42
1P1
Course Form
1.40
1 (won Ultima 2025)
Festival Form
1.35
1/1 — won Ultima 2025
Ground Fit
1.20
Soft / Heavy
Age
1.00
9
Rating
0.80
142
Freshness
1.15
45d
Trainer
Lucinda Russell
Lucinda Russell
Jockey
Patrick Wadge
Patrick Wadge
Form
1P1
1P1
Ground
Soft / Heavy
Soft / Heavy
Course Form
1 (won Ultima 2025)
1 (won Ultima 2025)
Festival Form
1/1 — won Ultima 2025
1/1 — won Ultima 2025
Defending champion — won this race last year
Lucinda Russell: 50% Ultima strike rate (3/6!) — extraordinary
Patrick Wadge won on him last year
Russell's Ultima winners (Corach Rambler) have gone on to win the National
Ground should be soft — he loves it
15lb rise in the weights (from 127 to 142) — historically very hard to defy
Favourites only win 16% in this race
Age 9 — slightly above the 7-8 sweet spot
Trainer angle is immense but 15lb rise is a mountain. Russell factor keeps him in play.
Avoid
❌ Any Irish-trained runner
— 0 from 46 in last 18 years — remarkable stat. Do not back Irish in the Ultima.
Race 5 — 16:00
Unibet Champion Hurdle
Value Pick
Tutti Quanti
16/1
EW
▼
Key Trends
- Favourites win 52% — most punter-friendly race at the Festival
- 11 of last 12 winners WON their most recent race
- EVERY winner (12/12) ran within the last 78 days
- 11 of last 12 aged 6-8
- 11 of last 12 had run at Cheltenham before; 8 had won there
- Wide open in 2026 — Constitution Hill gone to Flat, State Man absent
- Henderson has record 9 Champion Hurdle wins
🥇
Tutti Quanti
EW
Bookie Odds
16/1 (17.0)
True Price
15.43
EV%
+10.2%
Confidence
68/100
🟡
Our prob: 6.5%
Implied prob: 5.9%
True price: 15.43 vs 17.0 offered
+10.2% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.102x | Base: 5.9% → Model: 6.5%
Trainer Festival SR
1.00
12%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.04
13%
Jockey Festival SR
0.90
8%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.50
111
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.20
Soft / Heavy
Age
1.20
6
Rating
1.23
155
Freshness
1.15
30d
Trainer
Paul Nicholls
Paul Nicholls
Jockey
Harry Cobden
Harry Cobden
Form
111
111
Ground
Soft / Heavy
Soft / Heavy
Won William Hill Hurdle at Newbury by 15 LENGTHS — demolition
Supplemented at £18,000 cost — Nicholls believes in him
Could be Nicholls' first CH winner since Rock On Ruby 2012
Ground: loves soft — if it stays soft, he's dangerous
16/1 is huge value for a horse that won by 15 lengths LTO
Nicholls doesn't spend £18k to supplement unless very confident
Won last time out — fits 11/12 trend
No Cheltenham form — against the 11/12 who had run here trend
No Grade 1 form — 9/12 CH winners rated 161+
Rating 155 is below the typical winner's level
Championship debut — massive step up
BEST VALUE IN THE RACE. 15-length winner at 16/1. If soft, he's live.
STAKE: £10.00
(5% of bank)
🥈
The New Lion
Bookie Odds
7/4 (2.75)
True Price
2.36
EV%
+16.4%
Confidence
72/100
🟡
Our prob: 42.3%
Implied prob: 36.4%
True price: 2.36 vs 2.75 offered
+16.4% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.164x | Base: 36.4% → Model: 42.3%
Trainer Festival SR
0.83
8%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.04
13%
Jockey Festival SR
0.90
8%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.27
F11
Course Form
1.40
11 (won Turners 2025, won Unibet Hurdle Jan 2026)
Festival Form
1.35
1/1 — won Turners Novices' Hurdle 2025
Ground Fit
1.10
Good to Soft / Soft
Age
1.20
7
Rating
1.50
163
Freshness
1.15
55d
Trainer
Dan Skelton
Dan Skelton
Jockey
Harry Skelton
Harry Skelton
Form
F11
F11
Ground
Good to Soft / Soft
Good to Soft / Soft
Course Form
11 (won Turners 2025, won Unibet Hurdle Jan 2026)
11 (won Turners 2025, won Unibet Hurdle Jan 2026)
Festival Form
1/1 — won Turners Novices' Hurdle 2025
1/1 — won Turners Novices' Hurdle 2025
Festival winner — won Turners Novices' Hurdle 2025
Won the Unibet Hurdle at Cheltenham in January — course winner
Favourite — 52% of CH favourites win (best trend in the Festival)
Skelton emerging as a serious Festival trainer
Age 7 — right in the sweet spot
Won last time out — fits the 11/12 trend
Cheltenham course winner — fits 8/12 trend
Fell at Newcastle's Fighting Fifth — jumping error under pressure
Struggled to win International Hurdle — wasn't impressive
Season has not been smooth despite good results
7/4 is short for a race this open
First time at Championship level over hurdles (Turners was a novice race)
Fits every trend and is the justified favourite. Fair price but not huge value.
STAKE: £10.00
(5% of bank)
🥉
Golden Ace
EW
Bookie Odds
6/1 (7.0)
True Price
6.22
EV%
+12.6%
Confidence
50/100
🟠
Our prob: 16.1%
Implied prob: 14.3%
True price: 6.22 vs 7.0 offered
+12.6% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.126x | Base: 14.3% → Model: 16.1%
Trainer Festival SR
0.92
10%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.50
50%
Jockey Festival SR
0.90
8%
Won Last Time Out
0.70
No
Recent Form
1.32
12
Course Form
1.40
1 (won Champion Hurdle 2025!)
Festival Form
1.35
1/1 — Champion Hurdle winner at 25/1!
Ground Fit
1.20
Soft
Age
1.20
7
Rating
1.40
160
Freshness
1.00
70d
Trainer
Lucinda Russell
Lucinda Russell
Jockey
Derek Fox
Derek Fox
Form
12
12
Ground
Soft
Soft
Course Form
1 (won Champion Hurdle 2025!)
1 (won Champion Hurdle 2025!)
Festival Form
1/1 — Champion Hurdle winner at 25/1!
1/1 — Champion Hurdle winner at 25/1!
DEFENDING CHAMPION — won this at 25/1 last year
Course and Festival winner — proven at Cheltenham
Russell's Cheltenham record is remarkable (Ultima specialist too)
Second in Christmas Hurdle to Sir Gino — still competitive
6/1 each-way is interesting
Beat at Kempton last time — Sir Gino was better
25/1 last year suggests she overperformed — can she repeat?
Rating 160 is modest for a champion
Didn't win last time — against 11/12 trend
Defending champ at 6/1 but didn't win LTO. Place claims — each-way only.
Avoid
❌ Brighterdaysahead
— 0/2 at Cheltenham, 0/2 at Festival. Cheltenham is her bogey track.
❌ Lossiemouth
— Too short at 9/4 given Mullins' own doubts. May not even run.
Race 6 — 16:40
TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase
Value Pick
Matata
20/1
EW
▼
Key Trends
- Favourites have 50% strike rate (4/8 last 8 years) — unusually strong for a handicap
- Moved from Thursday to Tuesday in 2026 — historical trends carry less weight
- Progressive second-season chasers tend to do well
- Defending champion Jagwar has been withdrawn — redirected to Ultima
🥇
Matata
EW
Bookie Odds
20/1 (21.0)
True Price
19.76
EV%
+6.3%
Confidence
42/100
🟠
Our prob: 5.1%
Implied prob: 4.8%
True price: 19.76 vs 21.0 offered
+6.3% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.063x | Base: 4.8% → Model: 5.1%
Trainer Festival SR
1.00
12%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.04
13%
Jockey Festival SR
0.90
8%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.42
1P1
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.20
Soft
Age
1.20
8
Rating
0.73
140
Freshness
1.00
—
Trainer
Paul Nicholls
Paul Nicholls
Jockey
Harry Cobden
Harry Cobden
Form
1P1
1P1
Ground
Soft
Soft
Won New Year's Day trial — that race has produced multiple Plate winners
20/1 is a big price for a trial winner
Nicholls targeting him at this race
Won last time out
Rating 140 is modest
No Cheltenham form
Big price for a reason — unknown quantity at this level
LONGSHOT VALUE. Trial winner at 20/1. Worth a small each-way.
STAKE: £5.00
(2.5% of bank)
🥈
Madara
Bookie Odds
6/1 (7.0)
True Price
5.84
EV%
+19.8%
Confidence
58/100
🟠
Our prob: 17.1%
Implied prob: 14.3%
True price: 5.84 vs 7.0 offered
+19.8% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.198x | Base: 14.3% → Model: 17.1%
Trainer Festival SR
1.42
22%
Trainer Tuesday SR
0.96
11%
Jockey Festival SR
1.50
21%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.47
211
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.20
Soft
Age
1.20
7
Rating
1.00
148
Freshness
1.00
—
Trainer
Willie Mullins
Willie Mullins
Jockey
Paul Townend
Paul Townend
Form
211
211
Ground
Soft
Soft
Mullins/Townend — the best combination at the Festival
Won last time out
Favourites have 50% record in this race
Well handicapped — progressive type
Race moved from Thursday to Tuesday — trends disrupted
Now on Old Course instead of New Course — different test
Mullins is weaker on Tuesdays (11%)
Solid contender with top connections. Fair price.
STAKE: £5.00
(2.5% of bank)
🥉
McLaurey
EW
Bookie Odds
8/1 (9.0)
True Price
7.85
EV%
+14.7%
Confidence
52/100
🟠
Our prob: 12.7%
Implied prob: 11.1%
True price: 7.85 vs 9.0 offered
+14.7% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.147x | Base: 11.1% → Model: 12.7%
Trainer Festival SR
1.21
17%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.25
18%
Jockey Festival SR
1.20
14%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.47
121
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.10
Good to Soft / Soft
Age
1.20
7
Rating
0.90
145
Freshness
1.00
—
Trainer
Nicky Henderson
Nicky Henderson
Jockey
Nico de Boinville
Nico de Boinville
Form
121
121
Ground
Good to Soft / Soft
Good to Soft / Soft
Henderson on Tuesdays: 18% strike, positive ROI
Won last time out
Progressive handicapper
8/1 offers some value
Race day/course change makes trends less reliable
Rating 145 — needs to improve again
Henderson angle gives him an edge. Fair each-way value.
Avoid
❌ Waterford Whispers
— Limited Festival form — hard to fancy at the price
Race 7 — 17:20
Princess Royal National Hunt Chase
Value Pick
Backmersackme
6/1
EW
▼
Key Trends
- Longest race of the Festival — 3m6f with 23 fences. Stamina is paramount
- Favourites win only 32% — wide open race
- 9 of last 12 in top 3 in betting (despite few outright favs winning)
- 9 of last 12 aged 6-8
- Format changed in 2025: now professional jockeys, handicap chase (was amateur riders)
- Last-time-out form less predictive: only 4/10 won LTO
🥇
Backmersackme
EW
Bookie Odds
6/1 (7.0)
True Price
6.13
EV%
+14.1%
Confidence
55/100
🟠
Our prob: 16.3%
Implied prob: 14.3%
True price: 6.13 vs 7.0 offered
+14.1% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.141x | Base: 14.3% → Model: 16.3%
Trainer Festival SR
1.21
17%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.25
18%
Jockey Festival SR
1.20
14%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.42
1P1
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.20
Soft
Age
1.20
7
Rating
0.73
140
Freshness
1.00
—
Trainer
Nicky Henderson
Nicky Henderson
Jockey
Nico de Boinville
Nico de Boinville
Form
1P1
1P1
Ground
Soft
Soft
Henderson on Tuesdays — strong record
Won last time out
Age 7 — fits the sweet spot
Stamina should suit over this marathon trip
Favourites only 32% in this race
Marathon trip — anything can happen over 23 fences
Format changed in 2025 — limited historical data under new rules
Solid each-way contender. Henderson's Tuesday record supports.
STAKE: £5.00
(2.5% of bank)
🥈
Now Is The Hour
Bookie Odds
7/1 (8.0)
True Price
6.76
EV%
+18.4%
Confidence
50/100
🟠
Our prob: 14.8%
Implied prob: 12.5%
True price: 6.76 vs 8.0 offered
+18.4% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.184x | Base: 12.5% → Model: 14.8%
Trainer Festival SR
1.42
22%
Trainer Tuesday SR
0.96
11%
Jockey Festival SR
1.50
21%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.50
11
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.20
Soft / Heavy
Age
1.20
7
Rating
0.67
138
Freshness
1.00
—
Trainer
Willie Mullins
Willie Mullins
Jockey
Paul Townend
Paul Townend
Form
11
11
Ground
Soft / Heavy
Soft / Heavy
Mullins/Townend combo
Won last time out
Ground should suit
Mullins knows how to target races
Long trip is the unknown
Mullins weaker on Tuesdays (11%)
Rating 138 — modest
Mullins angle but price is fair not generous.
STAKE: £5.00
(2.5% of bank)
🥉
Soldier In Milan
EW
Bookie Odds
12/1 (13.0)
True Price
12.57
EV%
+3.4%
Confidence
42/100
🟠
Our prob: 8.0%
Implied prob: 7.7%
True price: 12.57 vs 13.0 offered
+3.4% EV VALUE
Model Breakdown — Composite: 1.034x | Base: 7.7% → Model: 8.0%
Trainer Festival SR
0.83
8%
Trainer Tuesday SR
1.04
13%
Jockey Festival SR
0.90
8%
Won Last Time Out
1.30
Yes
Recent Form
1.47
211
Course Form
0.85
—
Festival Form
0.85
—
Ground Fit
1.20
Soft
Age
1.20
8
Rating
0.57
135
Freshness
1.00
—
Trainer
Dan Skelton
Dan Skelton
Jockey
Harry Skelton
Harry Skelton
Form
211
211
Ground
Soft
Soft
Won last time out
12/1 offers each-way value
Skelton emerging at the Festival
Proven stamina
Limited top-level form
Rating 135 is on the low side
Each-way at 12/1. Skelton quietly targeting this.
Avoid
❌ Wendigo
— Big price for a reason — limited Festival credentials
📝 Key Tactical Notes
1.
LOSSIEMOUTH DECISION
Watch for final declaration (Mon 9th). If she goes to Mares' Hurdle (Fri), The New Lion shortens further. If she stays in CH, 9/4 is too short given Mullins' own doubts.
2.
HENDERSON ON TUESDAYS
18% strike rate, 80% with favourites, positive ROI. Lulamba (Arkle) + Old Park Star (Supreme) are his big guns.
3.
ULTIMA: BACK BRITISH ONLY
Irish trainers are 0/46 in the last 18 years. The most extraordinary stat in Festival racing. Only back British runners.
4.
ELLIOTT AVOID
1/52 at the 2025 Festival. Until he turns it around, his runners are value to oppose, not to back.
5.
NICHOLLS' SUPPLEMENT
Tutti Quanti supplemented at £18k into the Champion Hurdle. Trainers don't spend that money unless they genuinely believe.
6.
RE-RUN CLOSER TO RACE DAY
Final declarations on Monday 9th will confirm runners. Odds will shift. Update the data and re-run.
🌧 Ground & Conditions
Expected: Soft (Old Course) | Rainfall since Jan 1: 223mm | Temp: 12-15°C
SOFT GROUND SUITS
Tutti Quanti
Won by 15L on soft at Newbury
Myretown
Relishes soft ground
Kopek Des Bordes
Soft ground specialist
GROUND CONCERNS
Old Park Star
Handles it but not a specialist
Lulamba
Prefers better — soft could blunt speed